DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/18 11:50
Grains Mixed at Midday
Trade is mixed at midday in another session of very slow trade.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 25 points.
The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 6 lower.
Energies are mostly mixed with crude unchanged. Livestock trade is lower.
Precious metals are higher with gold up $4.50.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed in quiet midday trade with the market still
looking for footing going into the weekend. Long liquidation could reemerge
today, but there could be some short covering going into the weekend, with the
big crop tour coming up next week. Ethanol margins remain solid with the corn
and energy complex moving in tandem, although ethanol futures are softer this
morning. Trade will be watching for gulf export business as South American
harvest wrapping up on double crop corn has basis starting to firm on export
offers. On the December chart support is at $3.63 1/4 which is the new low for
the move which we tested overnight and the lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is
at the 10-day moving average at $3.74.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with wetter weather forecasted for next week
when the crop tour will be looking for evidence of the USDA projected yields.
Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Trade has found
more support the second half of the week with disappointing rains in Iowa with
trade starting to ease oversold conditions with fresh export demand remaining
strong with China buying optional origin yesterday. On the November chart
support is at the fresh low for the move at $9.21, then the 1-year low printed
in June at $9.07. The 10-day moving average is chart resistance at $9.45.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with wheat continuing the pattern of firmer
overnight trade, before turning soft during the day session with Minneapolis
wheat clinging to some light gains. The dollar rally has faded further which
should help to keep the U.S. more competitive with Russian logistical
bottlenecks coming forward with their big crop. Spring wheat harvest should
move past the halfway point with harvest pressure starting to ease. Trade is
heavily oversold, which should translate into bigger short covering at some
point ahead of winter wheat planting. On the December Kansas City contract
support is the $4.38 fresh low with resistance at the 10-day at $4.66.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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